For the very first time, global capsule production volume has flatlined at 82 billion capsules, comprising 30 billion aluminium and 52 billion plastic formats. But, like a swan, beneath the surface the industry has been frantically paddling through ups and downs, navigating major shifts from the original offering towards compatibles and private label. 

The industry consolidation process has already started, with leaders merging on both the filling and supply sides. Strategically, we are likely to see more of this. 

A shift in market strategy

In mature markets, such as Europe and North America, organic growth-based strategies are being replaced with positioning and pricing-driven strategies, alongside the need to offer greater choice and cater for all consumer groups. 

George Clooney’s ‘Nespresso. What else?’ – traditional, uncompromising, premium – has a very different connotation to Dua Lipa’s ‘What else?’ – curious, tailored, flexible. And this sentiment is evident across the evolution of portfolios throughout the single serve value chain. 

The capsules landscape has commoditised over the years, with the share of compatible designs reaching as high as 64% in the Nespresso segment in 2026, with other systems following the same trajectory. This marks a shift in portfolio management and reinforces the need to offer choice and cater for all consumer groups. A system is now a platform for multiple brands. 

New approaches to innovation

It is therefore no surprise that coffee companies have been developing new system initiatives in the premium space, such as Lavazza’s Tablì and Illy’s X-Caps. A proprietary approach offers innovation and protection but comes with a high level of risk in a volatile environment, compounded by legislative limbo. 

The new era for innovation goes beyond the capsule format, as industry leaders reimagine system design to be connected, versatile and offer novel routes to sustainability, including compressed coffee formats. 

A new regulatory era

Finally, the new era for single serve capsules is firmly marked by 12 August 2026, the first effective day of the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation. Under the regulation, capsules are included within the definition of ‘packaging’, bringing with it requirements around design for recycling, effective collection and recyclability at scale.

Explore the single serve capsules market

For deeper insight into the trends, developments and opportunities shaping the sector, explore AMI’s Single Serve Capsules Global Market Report.

You can also join industry leaders and experts at Single-Serve Capsules Europe to connect with the value chain and explore the latest developments affecting the market.